Numismatists that the coming year will bring?

[stankoufman]

Forecast of the leading trends in the Russian antiques market IV quarter of 2013 and for 2014 from Sergei Yunina , the founder of the Eastern European Antique House

It is likely that at the dawn of IV quarter is too early to sum up 2013 and build a forecast for 2014. Still, key market trends are already visible , and the intermediate results is quite possible to fail. It is clear that in 2013 confirmed the accuracy of the experts' forecasts - antiques market began to evolve .

Opposition to the market penetration of fakes and forgeries began to take a more systematic. This process will continue, the market began to talk about myself , and began to open. All this contributed to an increase in the volume of Russian antiques market .

The main trend in 2013 , as expected by us , has become used books , because of human emotions . Electronic media are increasingly began to replace prints, and gradually people feel nostalgic for a living book , a treat that you get when you leaf through the pages with white ink . And as a result - used books is breaking all records for an increase in sales growth in the antique market .

Our predictions are as follows: turnover in 2013 compared with the turnover in 2012 will double to around 150-180 million dollars. The following year, 2014 year, according to our forecasts, used books will remain on Olympus occupied by the rate of increase in market share.

The second highest growth ( not the volume , namely the rate of increase in market share of antiques ) will be arts and crafts (DPI ) . Russian porcelain and glass, of course, does not lose its relevance.

But we can already say that the Western European porcelain and glass began to press their confident Russian counterparts. This is because the Western European porcelain and glass , more and more popularized in Russia - only 9 months of this year were two exhibitions , which aroused great interest among the public . Russians have begun to understand the beauty and attractiveness of the investment objects PDI eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in Western Europe. Until the end of the year , we believe in absolute monetary terms, the percentage of items in the antique market PDI Russia will be about 200-220 million dollars. In 2014, these trends will continue and the market will be about 300-350 DPI million.

In the third place in terms of growth , we believe, will numismatics . This is the second after the painting on its financial capacity segment of the antique market. In 2013 , in addition to all the political and economic components , to increase the value of the numismatic market in Russia has affected sales of Russian coins - 1 ruble 10 -month-old Emperor John Antonovich was sold at auction Sincona Switzerland in early 2013 for 3.6 million Swiss francs (approximately $ 4 , 2000000 ), which gave a strong impetus to increase the value of the Russian numismatic market .

According to our data, the numismatic market in 2013 will amount to 350-400 million dollars. Positive growth trends and keep ticket in 2014 and will be no less than 500 million dollars. On average, the cost of Russian numismatic market will increase in 2013 by 15-20 %. But such growth will only Russian coins , ancient coins because of their considerably less popular ( in truth , undeservedly less ) will increase only by 5-10%.

The largest in absolute monetary terms the antique market segment - painting . According to experts , the turnover in the Russian art market in 2013 will be approximately 900 million - $ 1.1 billion , and in 2014 - 1.2-1.4 billion dollars. In 2013, the painting was in the market a few lethargic , as is still reeling from the shock of the scandal with the " Odalisque " Kustodiev . But in 2014 will clearly see the positive trend of its increase . In 2013, there has been an increase in demand for Soviet artists of the 1920s and 1950s , the Russian classical painting . In addition, significantly increase the volume of the market of antique furniture and collection of wine.

Overall, at the end of 2013 and in 2014 the market of antiques will be on the rise . Several factors contribute to this . For unstable dollar in global financial markets, investors are beginning to look traditionally " safe haven ." It is investing in gold , the Swiss franc, antiques and real estate. According to statistics, in these years the growth of the antique market is 20-25 %. Another important factor - the freezing of deposit accounts in Cyprus, and the third , as mentioned above - is the desire to Russian antiques market transparency and openness and , very importantly , the alignment system to fight fakes.

Another important point . Gradually expanding range of destinations for antiques market , which began to pay attention to the auction houses , for example , one of the auction house announced the holding of this December auction of jewelry and watches, and the next year - is on auction of furniture, musical instruments and even a Chinese auction items with the name " Greater China and the art of the East." The auction will be held in the Chinese language , and a catalog of auction items will also be in Chinese.

Together, these factors contribute to the growth of the market of antiques in 2013 to 18-20%in 2014 to 20-22%. Overall in terms of money , we expect turnover antique market in 2013 will be 2-2.2 billion dollars, and in 2014 - 2.4-2.8 billion dollars.

So , the advice - invest money in antiques . It can be compared to a financial instrument . In this case, all types of financial instruments , we believe investing in antiques most profitable and safe. But, of course , we must not forget that this is a medium-and long-term investment !