T. Ehrmann, head artprice.com, analyzes the Art Market

[qwerty]

SergeiSK, probably you are right, if something interesting will fall, let me know

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Eugene, again, you pulled out of context: I'm not a site to complain, and the actual index, it is not even an index, a simple vote among the visitors: good street or bad.

[Евгений]

Сообщение от qwerty

a specific index

So I'm talking about code and writing.

[Konstantin]

Before we take up the indices (Artinvestment.ru) very carefully studied - that is in the world on this topic. I was surprised to find that nothing good in world, work at least on the Internet - no. And even more surprised when they realized that truly represent the indexes Artpraysa. Our Admin, deeply studied this issue and how will describe in some detail.

[LCR]

Сообщение от qwerty

the loss of the oligarchs who buy very expensive work, are, rather, virtual, factories, steamships left

At first I thought so too (the stock of habit: "There is not sold - not to lose"), but look what he wrote Igor Markin at the end of November:

"It's funny
There is a rule for gamblers
"money becomes necessary precisely when to sell shares can not"
in theory, I always knew
now learned from experience
being at its
yesterday sold its entire package of Russian shares, which he held at Troika Dialog
recording the loss exactly 80%"

We must not forget that the rich are living on credit, but when banks reduce their financial surface, have to sell assets.

Сообщение от Admin

If there is a correction in prices outside of auction sales, then sooner or later it must occur in auction sales. /.../But I do not think that the auctioneers so easy to give up and meekly go to the decline in prices. They have this absolutely not interested, so that the auctions will be held until the last. But the galleries and private owners nowhere to go, because they often do not have such accumulated reserves, as in auctions, and in order to survive, they have to sell, albeit at reduced prices. Let's see what happens next.

Your analysis makes me some skepticism on the following reasons:

• in October leading auction houses have announced that at the spring auctions of evaluation will be 20-30%lower - they attributed the high ratings fall session so that all arrangements have been made before the crisis - and that the policy of guaranteed prices sunk into oblivion.
• auction of contemporary art, to be held at Sotheby's in February, has already moved in June - if they could cancel them altogether for a few years, I think they would do it.
• in the above leading auction houses began seriously reducing staff.

Of course, I do not think that all sectors will be affected equally. The old art and the art of the first half of the twentieth century, most likely not be affected, perhaps, increase the selectivity of buyers, but the prices, I think, especially not fall. As for modern art, in my opinion, there will be just a sea of blood (I'm not talking about Russian art, about which I generally agree with qwerty).

[Sandro]

Сообщение от SergeiSK

The names look the same, at least even hedgehog known first names in Russian painting. Just you have a factor of Moscow, where the price of painting is not changed, if not increased. But outside of Moscow, another Russia and other prices, which are now lower. Yes, and even at times of peak prices for painting all tried to sell his paintings in Moscow, where they cost several times higher. So in the capital of the fall in prices probably is not worth waiting ...

Sergey, you are absolutely right in assessing the situation of today's market! In Moscow the situation is exactly the same, if not worse! Clients offer a maximum of 50%of the initial price on the script goes two ways: 1. If the seller does not agree, then the client goes into an infinite Duma ...: mad:
2. If the seller agrees to a week later, the client or says, "then would /could, but now too late ..." or "take" and goes into an infinite Duma ...: mad:
result - the last months - solid visyaki ... even at the prices in 2005

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Сообщение от LCR

Your analysis makes me some skepticism on the following reasons:

• in October leading auction houses have announced that at the spring auctions of evaluation will be 20-30%lower - they attributed the high ratings fall session so that all arrangements have been made before the crisis - and that the policy of guaranteed prices sunk into oblivion.
• auction of contemporary art, to be held at Sotheby's in February, has already moved in June - if they could cancel them altogether for a few years, I think they would do it.
• in the above leading auction houses began seriously reducing staff.

I can still add:
* That in the summer, ie in 2-hoo auction sessions, 80%"sold" lots are still not paid, that is, you realize that they probably will not be paid, in the Nearest time for sure: (

[Admin]

Сообщение от LCR

Your analysis makes me some skepticism for the following reasons:

Liana, dear, yes I have and analysis of a no no. I wrote that first comes to mind to explain the situation with the prices at auctions. You do yourself wrote that auctions imply lower prices for spring, that is, future auctions, as I speak only on past auctions, where, as you yourself have confirmed there was no reduction in prices. About preliminary, pre-crisis agreement on prices for the autumn auctions in general, I had no idea. I have built my conclusions solely on the basis of technical analysis, based on our indexes.

And about the index of "Audience Choice", which is referred to the Director Artpraysa, I completely agree with qwerty. Poizuchayte Artprayse more closely at how they believe this index. Everyone wishing to participate in the survey they ask 4 questions, which offer ready-made answers. Questions about this type (can not remember exactly): "You bought something last month? You ever plan to buy next month?" How do you think the market is rising or falling? "- Well, and more something in the same spirit. Then they take the last 1000 responses and to a certain algorithm rely on them its index. So no relation to actual market sales, this index does not. This is an index of current sentiment of visitors Artpraysa, nothing more.

We Artpraysa there is another index that is very difficult to find on their site. This is an index volume of market sales. I do not know for what reason they are so deeply hidden it. However, the explanation may be very simple, we need only carefully examine the code. Those interested propose to do it yourself and see yourself all over.

[Кирилл Сызранский]

Сообщение от Sandro

that since the summer, ie in 2-hoo auction sessions, 80%"sold" lots are still not paid, that is, you realize that they probably will not be paid in time Nearest exactly

About what auctions you write? And where did this figure-80%? There are the sources?