Старый 02.01.2009, 17:52 Язык оригинала: Русский       #1
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По умолчанию T. Ehrmann, head artprice.com, analyzes the Art Market

Here is an interview with T. Erman, in my opinion, quite ridiculous, that is, I believe that his analysis of the market completely untenable. But no matter, our job - to translate, and your - read and draw their own conclusions, so pleasant reading.



Thierry Ehrmann, the president-general dirketor artprice.com analyzes the market of art

Lyonmag.com, 2.01.2009. Interview Laurent Seven


have affected the art market crisis?

FC - Yes, the downward correction is very strong. And lightning. Now the Art Market reacts with almost the same speed as the financial markets. Therefore Artprice developed indicator of confidence subscribers, AMCI. And we note that this indicator falls upon a few hours after the collapse of the indicators or the NASDAQ Dow Jones.

significantly diminished if the market of art?

Читать дальше... 
FC - With regard to the works, the price does not exceed 15,000 euros, a special risk of falling prices is not because these products are bought mostly just because they like them. In contrast, in the trenches between 15000 and 50000 euro correction will be very severe, from -40 to -50%. Prices for works from 50 to 100000 euro should fall by about 30%. The market is falling vertically, but this drop is caused by excessive growth in the recent past. But at the top of the trench, at a cost of more than 100000 euros, decrease will be minimal, as the product of such a level literally sag under tazhestyu any diplomas, certificates and signatures. These heavyweights of the art market nearly lost in the price. But keep in mind that they represent only 0.1%of the market.

But the "golden boys", many bought on the art market, now there is no money!

FC - Yes, it's true, they need the cash. So they sell. But remember, they find buyers for their belongings. In my opinion, is better to sell Warhol than Peugeot, moreover, that the art market expanded. During a previous crisis in the art market in 1990, there were 500,000 major collectors. And now we can say that there are 50 million consumers of art. Sociology of the art market has changed radically. Before the age of buyers was equal to an average of 50-60 years, but now people are beginning to make itself kollektsiiyu in 25 years with an initial capital of 15,000 euros. On the other hand, the myth of the damned, misunderstood and impoverished artist finally died. Contemporary artists have learned a lot, became more cunning. Just after graduating from the High School of Fine Arts, he was already versed in marketing, he knows what to produce, where, when and how.

So, its only interested in money?

FC - Yes, artists like money. Incidentally, the first time in the history of mankind living artists such as Jeff Koons, more expensive than the already dead artists nedaavnego the past - for example, Warhol. But for Jeff Koons is a real organization, the agents who follow the quotation of works by Koons all over the world - is quite as on the exchange.

So, a work of art operates today, as shares of companies listed on the stock exchange?

FC - Exactly. In fact, the Art Market - a financial market, but ten times more cruel, and ten times smarter than the stock market. A work of art was a product of trade exchange in the true sense of the word. Ten years ago, now sell less than five years after its purchase was not possible, because it aroused suspicions of its authenticity. And now you can buy and resell it a few weeks, all spit on the rate of movement of works of art.

is - spekulyaschiya?

FC - Yes. But without a speculative bubble. Statistically bidding constantly ascertained 31-32%of unsold lots. If we were dealing with a fierce spkulyatsiey such lots would be no more than 7 or 8%. People would buy anything at any price. This situation also shows that the auction houses to carry out a rigorous selection of the proposed works and expose only high-quality work.

Can I say that consumers have today more inflomatsiey about the works?

FC - Yes, now all have access to information about works of art and artists. For example, last year Artprice responded to 12 billion queries of its customers. So anyone entering the gallery, already knows how much it costs some artist, whether it is sold abroad, how many of his works on the market ...

What is the status of galleries?

FC - A certain number of galleries will be closed, as banks have decided to discontinue their financial support. Gallery, which has no equity, no waste, is in its death throes. Close and a lot of auction houses. On some issues there is no answer: Will China support their artists of nationalism, or it will give them disappear? The answer to this question will allow us to understand whether the market of art sunk in the blood or not.

Will this crisis is prolonged?

FC - Following the crisis in 1990 had to wait seven years to the U.S. market returned to pre-crisis levels of prices, but in France, this level was reached only in 2007 ... But now everything is changing much faster. Also today, the audience much more receptive to modern art than 20 or 30 years ago. And most importantly, is that in the next five years will be built more museums of modern art than for the whole of the twentieth century. 360 new museums that have large budget - from 200 to 800 million euros, will inevitably dinamiziruyut global art market, as these museums will have to be staffed.



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Старый 02.01.2009, 18:54 Язык оригинала: Русский       #2
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Liana, thank you very much, very interesting interview!

But it seems that we (at ARTinvestment.RU) there is reason to disagree with the Director Artprice.com. The fact that we now intend to introduce new codes of the art market - at a price sub-bands. This index will be similar to what we have now, but calculated on the following price ranges (current prices):
  • is less than 15 thousand dollars
  • 15-50 thousand dollars
  • 50-150 thousand dollars
  • more than 150 thousand dollars
Final payment until, unfortunately, no (they appear around the number to 20 January), is still going debugging algorithm, but preliminary calculations give a rather paradoxical results. Of course, all this should still check and recheck, however, since I introduced this occasion, I venture to something pre-voice.

So. Preliminary results are such that none of the above my price segments of the market is not any appreciable fall of the indices. This means that to date, any significant correction in prices at auctions does not happen.

There is a legitimate question: what, then, caused the fall of the general market index this fall, which remarkably illustrate our general indexes graphics art market? And it caused a redistribution of sales in the listed price segments. Significantly reduced the number of sales in higher-priced market segments, and the proportion of low-cost sales began to prevail, that affect the average market prices, led to their decline.

Once a reservation, that while this is only the preliminary results. However, they are consistent with the mood of the market. Decent Work collectors now take, do not sell, fearing the crisis mood. But the real masterpieces are sold at a very pre-crisis prices, which confirms and Mr. Ehrmann.

In addition to these new price indexes on sub-bands that I have already mentioned, we will take another graph showing the distribution of sales between the same price sub-band to the analyst can gain a complete picture of the situation on the market. In general, if all goes according to plan, two or three weeks, you all can see for yourself.



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Старый 02.01.2009, 19:01 Язык оригинала: Русский       #3
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In addition to these new price indexes on sub-bands that I have already mentioned, we will take another graph showing the distribution of sales between the same price sub-band to the analyst can gain a complete picture of the situation on the market.
It will be interesting to watch.
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This will be the indices similar to what we have now, but calculated on the following price ranges (current prices):
less than 15 thousand dollars
15-50 thousand dollars
50-150 thousand dollars
than 150 thousand dollars
These indexes also curious to watch closely.
Now any analysis is interesting and important.
And suddenly, we all when the wind blows on the water, once burnt child's milk? Or overly optimistic looking at trends artinvestitsy?



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Старый 02.01.2009, 20:33 Язык оригинала: Русский       #4
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Admin,
There is another segment of the art market, which is not mentioned, although sales in its more than half of all sales of art throughout the world. This is a private sale, which are little publicized, but their volume is much more auction or gallery-. But statistics are no such sales. And will never be. But some data on prices is quite well known. Of course only in Russia. Over the last two weeks of communication with sellers can say that prices have fallen by 20%-40%. And this is the first thirty names in Russian painting and the top twenty in Ukrainian. That is, that the spring-summer sold for $ 100,000 can now be bought for 60000 $ -80000 $. And there are quite specific and realistic proposals. And not isolated. According to modern art can not say anything, no one has proposed, but it is a fall in prices will (and already are) even more.
And yet it seems to me that the redistribution of sales towards lower-cost painting was not. Just went to some panic and lower prices on expensive painting, but not increased sales of cheap.
There at all time to buy. Time to sell will come later.



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Старый 02.01.2009, 21:46 Язык оригинала: Русский       #5
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And yet it seems to me that the redistribution of sales towards lower-cost painting was not. Just went to some panic and lower prices on expensive painting, but not increased sales of cheap.
Please note that I am not talking about increasing the number of sales of cheap work. It seems, also fell slightly (the exact numbers do not know). But the number of sales of more expensive works decreased significantly more essential. That is, redistribution of sales towards lower-cost operations, because of what the average prices fell by market as a whole.

It is clear that this is only on sale at auction. But it is - an insignificant figure. Perhaps correction auction prices simply have not yet happened and will happen a little later. Time will - we shall see.



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Старый 03.01.2009, 08:31 Язык оригинала: Русский       #6
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Admin, I agree with you, an interesting interview.
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Perhaps correction auction prices simply have not yet happened and will happen a little later
It already is in full swing .. Sasha, in Russia you have to consider that 70-80%of sales takes place outside auction houses and galleries, and the change in prices in August is very significant. (In private sales, prices declined.)



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Старый 03.01.2009, 10:53 Язык оригинала: Русский       #7
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Zhenya, once again remind you that we are talking about the art market indexes that are calculated solely on the results of auction sales. There is no other way to calculate the indices and there can not be.

If there is a correction in prices outside of auction sales, then sooner or later it must occur in auction sales. Indices only state that so far any serious korretsii price at auction was not. Although, for example, our indices of consumer activity is clearly signaling that the number of sales declined. This is partly due to the lack of decent offers on today's auction. However, I do not think that the auctioneers so easy to give up and meekly go to the decline in prices. They have this absolutely not interested, so that the auctions will be held until the last. But the galleries and private owners nowhere to go, because they often do not have such accumulated reserves, as in auctions, and in order to survive, they have to sell, albeit at reduced prices. Let's see what happens next.



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Старый 03.01.2009, 11:34 Язык оригинала: Русский       #8
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Here is an interview with T. Erman, in my opinion, quite ridiculous, that is, I believe that his analysis of the market completely untenable.
have affected the art market crisis?
FC - Yes, the downward correction is very strong. And lightning. Now the Art Market reacts with almost the same speed as the financial markets. Therefore Artprice developed indicator of confidence subscribers, AMCI. And we note that this indicator falls upon a few hours after the collapse of the indicators or the NASDAQ Dow Jones.
significantly diminished if the market of art?
FC - With regard to the works, the price does not exceed 15,000 euros, a special risk of falling prices is not because these products are bought mostly just because they like them. In contrast, in the trenches between 15000 and 50000 euro correction will be very severe, from -40 to -50%. Prices for works from 50 to 100000 euro should fall by about 30%. The market is falling vertically, but this drop is caused by excessive growth in the recent past. But at the top of the trench, at a cost of more than 100000 euros, decrease will be minimal, as the product of such a level literally sag under tazhestyu any diplomas, certificates and signatures. These heavyweights of the art market nearly lost in the price. But keep in mind that they represent only 0.1%of the market.
Generally speaking, such an outlook on our forum is still being done in October (now hard to find in any place, can help Admin). The logic is simple: the loss of the oligarchs who buy very expensive work, are, rather, virtual, factories, steamships left, oil will not become, worthless stock, but will end the crisis, and stock prices will return to the previous level. But the middle class, bought the work in the average range, suffered real: downsizing and reduction of wages is not virtual, so the prices in this range should prosest.
Another thing is that the highest level, surrounded by diplomas and certificates - it's not for Russia, where such things simply outstanding units and, more recently, millions have paid for everything, including the very average quality of work such as Aivazovsky, Luba, Deineka, etc. That is, it seems to me to be very correct, and this work should go back to the middle range, the place where they are.
As an index developed at artprice, it is, of course, nonsense: it simply reflects the people's attitude to the crisis, in fact gleaned from the media and has no relationship to the art market. But the indexes developed on this site, I think, cause much more confidence.

[color="# 666686"]Added after 14 minutes[/color]
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There is another segment of the art market, which is not mentioned, although sales in its more than half of all sales of art throughout the world. This is a private sale, which are little publicized, but their volume is much more auction or gallery-. But statistics are no such sales. And will never be. But some data on prices is quite well known. Of course only in Russia. Over the last two weeks of communication with sellers can say that prices have fallen by 20%-40%. And this is the first thirty names in Russian painting and the top twenty in Ukrainian. That is, that the spring-summer sold for $ 100,000 can now be bought for 60000 $ -80000 $. And there are quite specific and realistic proposals. And not isolated.
I still do not see it: all that I proposed to privately or falls on the auction is almost pre-crisis money. Maybe we have different views on the first of thirty names in Russian painting?



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Старый 03.01.2009, 12:02 Язык оригинала: Русский       #9
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I still do not see it: all that I proposed to privately or falls on the auction is almost pre-crisis money. Maybe we have different views on the first of thirty names in Russian painting?
On the names look the same, at least even hedgehog known first names in Russian painting. Just you have a factor of Moscow, where the price of painting is not changed, if not increased. But outside of Moscow, another Russia and other prices, which are now lower. Yes, and even at times of peak prices for painting all tried to sell his paintings in Moscow, where they cost several times higher. So in the capital of the fall in prices probably is not worth waiting for ...



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Старый 03.01.2009, 12:11 Язык оригинала: Русский       #10
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developed at artprice, it is, of course, complete nonsense
artprice.com-is the leading analytical resource in the west (dozens of analysts working professionals, analyzed hundreds of auctions every day, reviewed thousands of sites on art, etc.) and write that the indices that they are developing-nonsense? And then who is authoritative for your resource? (except artinvest.ru)



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