Psychology of the old economy dead - long live the new psychology of the market! Market, which actually are not. If we use the terminology of the theory of Darwin, there was a "drastic change in habitat and conditions in the global economy. Given the speed of information transfer is inevitably led to a change in human psychology and its relationship to the world.
Globalization has quietly introduced new rules of the game, which demolished the old stable economic system and created a new world disease - mistrust. She, in turn, is rapidly spreading from the banking system to the economy as a whole, with a further transition to the social and political relations. Therefore the main task of the moment - is a new system of trust - both in the global economy, and in a single country.
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Young-market economy in Russia, on the one hand, offers certain advantages over the old development: significantly fewer problems, and they can "go over manually, first build the bottom. On the other hand, there is a significant drawback - a large gap in understanding between the political elite, which produces and makes decisions, and the business community, which now bears the brunt of the situation. That is why the unprecedented government measures do not give the expected result (an increase of the stock market one must not be misleading), since it does not take into account the psychological response to current business problems. To overcome this gap is critical, otherwise it will be as always: believe in hard ruble and immediately run to buy dollars.
From just over 20 years of my business career about seven years I was involved in a crisis-management (impact of the banking crisis in 1998, the first years of work in Norilsk Nickel, the last two years of partition of the empire "Interros"). Based on this experience will try to give his version of the answer to the famous Russian question "What should I do?": Get rid of illusions, to determine the rules, put the key objectives and implement them professionally.
Getting rid of illusions and myths
Myth 1: "We must ensure the stability of the entire economy." No need to save what can not be saved: good old economy will not be any in the West or from us. Will the new rules, the ratio of the value of money to assets, assessment of competitive advantages, animators and risks - all will be greatly changed, and we can actively participate in this.
Myth 2: "great accumulation of reserves - a guarantee solutions to all problems." For the money the trust can not be bought. Needed psychological compatibility and understanding of government action, market participants and the public. It's like a doctor and patient relationship - both need to understand what is happening, and believe that the course of prescription drugs will help, but if confidence disappears, the patient will self-medicate (which is now the case).
Myth 3: "Nationalization - is bad." This is normal market practice in crisis situations (along with the bankruptcy). State all the help can not and should not - focus only on strategic and supporting, socially important industry, and cleaning of the weak and strengthen strong companies - the basis of market economy. What state in the near future will own a state-owned banks a lot of re-privatize the property - a historical fact (the value of assets less the value of liabilities). The question is - how to manage it all without losing the quality of assets until the recovery of markets and the beginning of a new stage of privatization.
MYTH 4: Preserve the gold reserves and a strong national currency. I think that does not, it will have to make a choice: either one or the other, and rather than solve, the better. And it may still get as always: no reserves, no strong ruble.
Myth 5: "Keeping the high income growth. The growth of wages, advanced productivity, is impossible.
Myth 6: "All the alleged actions necessarily sell. The situation is changing so rapidly that there is nothing wrong (on the contrary - it's very professional!) Immediately replaced the ineffective measure of efficiency. Example: do not need to spend 175 billion rubles. to support the stock market - that it no longer helps.
On rules
A few words about the rules of the game. Academically correct decisions in extreme situations do not work - the solution should be simple, everyone understands the complex are interconnected and must be implemented quickly and at the same time, focusing on stabilization, anticipation of problems and expansion (you can not only defend, attack!) In sectors where there is opportunities to enhance competitive advantage. In these extraordinary times of sacrifice is inevitable, and, most importantly - do not bring them in vain, choices and decisions are in favor of the priorities in virtually "manual" mode. It is important to act comprehensively. Supports must be built below the current level - and to save what has not yet been affected, but they certainly suffer if you do not do this in advance. It is important to determine where is the "most terrible" point, which can reach up to the crisis, and begin to work it with her, while keeping the system point. For example, if today we understand that a possible sad ending of the crisis - a dramatic drop in consumption and, consequently, the breakdown of distribution and production, as happened in the 80-ies., So now they need to work primarily at promoting sustainable consumption demand, then address the issues of medium-sized businesses in the regions, and so forth, moving toward a crisis, and not accompanying him.
Key priorities
1. Saving the life support system at the federal and regional levels
2. Effective model of crisis management
3. Maintaining foreign reserves
4. Bridging the gap between government action and the psychology of market participants
5. Expansion of Russia in the international and domestic markets
Implementation
In large systems (which include the state) the transition to manual control is extremely difficult because the task of a large system is precisely to protect the integrity of the system from the influence of random factors.
But now another case - the new system should include only those elements that are necessary or competitive. Technologically, the challenge is as follows: to create a platform on which will be quickly adopted, and implemented solutions to support the life-support systems of the country, preserve and develop its competitive advantages of expansion in times of crisis. Platform, which will be co-ordination and building confidence between the economy and the state. Such a task without the elements of manual control can not be solved (a possible model of management is presented in the diagram *).
Practical implementation of decisions may take based on the adopted road maps for individual sectors or issues.
Let's start with the financial and banking system. A key problem - the money does not go into the real sector, it is necessary - to run the credit facility and to clear the bond and debt markets. The state is pumping liquidity into the banking system, and rightly expect a change. But this does not happen, because the banks solve their problems: restoring capital after the loss, look to the corrosion rate of bank assets (there was a sharp decrease in the value of collateral), and create excessive liquidity cushion (yes even in dollars) in case of deterioration. The banks with state participation, conflict of interest even sharper: such as the country tasked to rescue, but his own problems the bank is closer.
To solve the problem requires a social contract (some solid gentleman's agreement) with the state banks: State assistance (only live on the banks of acceptable and desired conditions: long money, with a low interest rate, using the entire arsenal of possibilities - from the deposits of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance to buy good assets that can be used simultaneously!) and forcibly bring the credit limits of life-supporting industries and the public, and banks are taking a voluntary commitment to be an instrument of public policy, deliberately bringing the risks in the period of turbulence.
If necessary, the State imposes such banks spetskaznacheev - representatives of staff to monitor compliance with the "agreement", the violation of which in the present context means the immediate bankruptcy of the bank.
Restoring the normal process of lending is not possible without clearance of the bond and debt markets, which can be conducted either through direct purchase by the State formed the debts from the money allocated to support the stock market or additional targets through the banking system.
Especially I want to note the importance of continuing the development of consumer crediting of the population - is the best psychological assurance and protection from removal of deposits in banks and further stimulate demand. State, giving the banks long and inexpensive money, should ensure lengthening the duration of loans, lower interest rates, a ban on write-offs of mortgages for 1-2 years, and an increase in new lending.
Now as to the real sector. He has already begun to feel the full impact of the crisis and shrinking under the impact of decreasing demand, restrict access even to the Capital Fund; dramatically increase mutual non-payments and inventory in warehouses, mass began to move to part-load up to stop the production of the downsizing of the workforce.
Fundamentally important in this context also is implementing measures to stimulate demand for the products of the real sector through:
public procurement (implementation of major infrastructure projects and the purchase of goods in the state reserve);
export
assist industry
development of consumer crediting of the population.
When choosing a specific industry or company must be a strategic road map that will help preserve public funds and trust to achieve the desired result.
Take the automobile industry. The problems are well known. On the one hand, providers of plants stopped because of unpaid debts and lack of access to working capital, on the other hand - dealers are also experiencing an acute shortage of cash and can not buy cars for sale. Assume that the domestic automaker has received earmarked funds for resolving the issues with suppliers and dealers can now lend the machines with deferred payment. But we should remember that more than 30%went through the implementation of consumer loans! The conclusion - if the system of consumer credit people will stop and will not be replaced, for example, the state order, the money to provide automotive industry is not necessary.
It is essential today to draw attention to the problems of the regions, as well as measures taken by the Government, aimed at supporting the major public and private corporations and banks, but a significant portion of GDP entities are products of the middle of life-supporting businesses that provide much of the regional tax revenues and do not fall the chosen scheme of stabilization. The proposed technological model of the "road map" can be cloned at the regional level through the provision of subsidies to Federation subjects of the federal budget for further refinancing the most important regional enterprises.
New
Sharp change in conditions creates not only challenges but also opportunities to build competitive advantage, capture and creation of new markets - both in Russia and abroad. Our country has large foreign reserves and strong commodity-dependent economies, which gives a chance to compete for the maximum share of the global financial pie by creating a world financial center in Moscow and making the ruble into a reserve currency. In this regard, looks necessary to implement a number of measures, namely:
Establish a mechanism for state guarantees for stock transactions in rubles and deposited securities; improvement of the law (a single market - a single depository), treatment of new financial instruments that have a physical content (eg, land);
create their own class of investors (investment banks, investment funds and NPF, the population and only then the state);
introduction of payments in rubles for oil, gas, precious metals, ie, where there is a strong market power of Russia;
expansion of Russia's capital primarily to developing markets with hiring the best investment of personnel, released as a result of the financial crisis. It is necessary to strengthen Russia's influence in global financial markets and improve competitiveness and sustainability of the national financial system.
Compress old inefficient economy frees up significant fallen in price labor and material resources which should be directed to the accelerated development of the new economy in the area:
construction of modern infrastructure (roads, housing, new towns);
creating new markets for the innovation economy, such as in-depth processing of energy, alternative energy, materials science and nanotechnology, environment and catalysis;
active involvement of land in the economic cycle and the creation of a transparent market treatment;
target defense order for the modernization of the army under the military doctrine;
agricultural development and processes of modern agro-processing for solving the country's food.
What's next?
In conclusion, I want to share some strategic considerations for the development of the world globalization process, which is now at a crossroads. There are two mutually exclusive scenarios:
1) Globalization can find new forms of trust and reach a new level of interdependence among countries and processes;
2) or will prevail under the influence of the current complexities of national interests and to save the recipe (in this case such a currency, the euro, may not be).
The answer to the question of which scenario will prevail, lies in the strategic decisions of countries, including Russia as an active player of the world global economy. In the near future we will have to make choices.
Author - The President of the Group Onexim »
Эти 2 пользователя(ей) сказали Спасибо Vladimir за это полезное сообщение:
In terms of financial management of all the recipes really look good, but the state is not a company or even a group of companies. By the way, under manual control of the company with the fastest method for managing atoritarnym translated, and then up to the tyranny of quite a bit.
State is not a company or even a group of companies.
our state - a small group of "shareholders" who are trying to quietly bury all of her cheeks and pull apart at the corners.
won Chemezov (Chapter Rostekhnologia ") entrusted to dispose of property 229 joint-stock companies, whether for six months, or year))) is called, do whatever you want as far as imagination can ...
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До меня мир рисовали таким, как его видят. Я рисую так, как его мыслю. (с) Пикассо.
12.11.2008, 16:21
Explanatory article by Mikhail Prokhorov (the same) about the prospects of the situation
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