Prices reach peaks, customer confidence decreases

[LCR]

Prices reached the top, customer confidence decreases

Journal AZHEFI (AGEFI)
25.07.2008

Works of art are one of the few investments that can bring more profits. It seems that due to the activity of several billionaires financial crisis does not affect them. Recent London auction again beat several records. But while prices have reached new peaks, the trust of collectors is reduced.

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A barrel of oil reached 150 dollars, the texture sub-awards is becoming more serious, real estate prices are falling all over the world, financial markets are falling, inflation is becoming a tangible ... In this context, the results of the auction Christie's and Sotheby's are striking. In London, the capital of European art market, both auction houses have confirmed that the art market in excellent health. Their trades were waiting with impatience, and need to recognize that despite the unfavorable economic climate, were riddled with numerous records. Bidding Christie's on June 24 (Impressionism and modern art) yielded 144 million pounds - an unprecedented result in Europe. The next day, Sotheby's realized revenue of 102 million pounds, that is, 7 million more than the sum of upper bounds. "Water lilies" Monet sold for 36.5 million pounds, today the price index of the Impressionists rose by 13%compared with 1990, in the midst of a speculative bubble. Total 20 lots of 136 remained unsold - less than 15%- a low number of the remaining unsold lots surprising even for such prestigious auction. In May, at New York auctions of impressionist and modern art remained unsold for about 23%of lots. The vast majority of buyers were Europeans. At Sotheby's auction, they bought 70%of the exhibited works.

To meet the wishes of the new collectors, Christie's put a large number of works by Russian artists. Artworks Baranova-Rossine, Vera Rokhlin and Natalia Goncharova broken all records of trades. Goncharova, whose still life "Flowers" went for 4.6 million pounds, became the most expensive female artist of the market. /.../

Euphoria swept the entire market of art. At the international level index Artprays (Artprice Global Index) on 1 st July 2008 stood at 128 points in euros and 175 dollars (the level in July 1990 adopted by over 100 points). The art of any era and any quality has never been so expensive!

In parallel with these incredible results of the auction has been a month, as an indicator of market confidence of Art (Art Market Confidence Index Artprays) continuously decreases. This indicator is to anticipate the behavior of the market with the horizon of 3 months, similar to the index of consumer feelings Survey Research Center at Michigan State University. Vysshchayshego reached the level of 31 points in late May, after the excellent results of trades in New York, he became progressively lowered, following the specter of global economic recession. Despite the good results of the London trading, market participants all the anxiety increases. On June 9 AMSI reached 24.3 points, 15 of July it fell below 0. In response to the deteriorating global economic situation, the number of market participants who intend to continue to acquire works of art, continually decreases, and their opinion about your financial situation is becoming more pessimistic, as well as their vision for the evolution of prices.

[Vladimir]

Originally Posted by LCR

A barrel of oil reached $ 150,

Already fallen to almost 100.

[LCR]

Originally Posted by Vladimir

For honoring fallen to 100.

The article was published about a month ago, maybe Artprice indicator for this time back up, will have to look

[Vladimir]

Index of consumer expectations only says that people from the oppressive economic environment deteriorates mood. But there is another theory. Recently ARCHIVE recalled that when around a fire, people have an excess demand for entertainment and anti-stress shopping. Simply put, when the economic crisis, then things are taverns in the mountain. There may work the same logic. Moreover, the crisis for poor and middle class and the rich from it usually do not suffer

[LCR]

Originally Posted by Vladimir

The index of consumer expectations only says that people from the oppressive economic environment deteriorates mood. But there is another theory. Recently ARCHIVE recalled that when around a fire, people have an excess demand for entertainment and anti-stress shopping. Simply put, when the economic crisis, then things are taverns in the mountain. There may work the same logic. Moreover, the crisis concerns the poor and middle class and the rich from it usually do not suffer

Yes, all right, That is why all market observers note that "the prestige segment continues to grow, but in all other segments is narrowing demand. However, for the prosperity of the market not a dozen sensational sales of Bacon and Freud, to a large number of sales the average price level.

Actually, I do not have an opinion or have, but without much conviction - I still think that the crisis will affect the art market, the first signs, I think, are already visible - I will not list them, it is long and not particularly interesting - but I hope that I was mistaken in his analysis.

[Konstantin]

the first signs, I think, are already visible - I will not list them, it is long and not particularly interesting - but I hope that I was mistaken in his analysis.

Very interesting and important topic. At least two of three feature name please.
There is argument-issue. The crisis, if it is not necessary to hit all markets equally. And not the fact that the cheap hit, and the roads there. For example right now the anniversary of the default of 98 years (by the way 10 years). Then the car sales business class was a crisis, but Zhiguli beat sales records. And firms Zhiguli, during the crisis fatten.

[Vladimir]

Originally Posted by Konstantin

Then the car sales business class was a crisis, but Zhiguli beat sales records. And firms Zhiguli, during the crisis fatten.

I know a good earning family, which lay at the apartment, but could not keep pace with the growth of property prices. For those who are abroad will explain that in Moscow the difficulty of hiring an apartment to make, in principle, possible And now people are really tired of playing catch-up with the prices and waiting for "purification of the crisis, when prices collapse and you can buy something. After the 1998 crisis, prices have fallen by the way, not only in the Lada. I have my first car (Korean), bought just in 1998, when prices fell.

[Admin]

News on the same topic on ARTinvestment.RU of 24.07.2008

Change the index of consumer confidence in the art market

By the way, watched index of consumer confidence Artpraysa, its value yesterday was 20, now 22,7 - that is, the mood among investors in the art optimistic.

[qwerty]

Originally Posted by LCR

I still think that the crisis will affect the art market, the first signs, I think, are already visible - I will not list them, it is long and not particularly interesting - but I hope that I was mistaken in his analysis.

In my view the crisis, if it happens, will primarily affect contemporary art, and other publicized rubbish like social realism, Ajvazov Lagorio, "Russian impressionism, etc., ie First stop buying those for whom art is not a matter of prime necessity, but merely a tribute to fashion. A serious art does not suffer, because it is unique and not subject to financial risks.

[Евгений]

qwerty, Edward Steinberg (Academician, nonconformist) .. on contemporary artists, prices, etc.
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Q: Today, prices for paintings of artists of your generation have reached staggering heights at auction. Kabakov spent several million dollars. Drew themselves up to one million milestone Krasnopevtsev, Bulatov, Vasiliev ... Do they really worth all that money?
E. Steinberg: One dress, then stand. At this point you can laugh, you can applaud. But I'm skeptical. I am a little familiar with the situation on the art market. In Western art such prices do not.
in: Some experts predict Russia's art market inevitable collapse. Others, however, are convinced that at current oil prices will rise and prices of art.
E. Steinberg: My prediction is reduced to the fact that this market will certainly collapse. From modern art to remain two or three: Kabakov, Weisberg, Krasnopevtsev. When will incur to sell the rest, their pictures will be worth two pennies ... "
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From the article (avt.Yu.Kovalenko) Eduart Steinberg "I'm not interested in kissing policemen" http://forum.artinvestment.ru/showth...4325#post34325
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I agree completely, another 2-3 nonconformists, the rest (sots.art, pop.art and other fashionable "rubbish "...)" will cost two pennies ..."