If you assess the situation from the perspective of the current set of regulatory indicators, a number of anti-crisis measures (random, forced and deliberate) led to the formation in Russia of a new volume, ready-to-home market.
We survived the devaluation, and although last year the effect of devaluation is largely eaten, but still not quite. The real ruble per cent for ten to fifteen below pre-crisis and this situation seems stable - just because of problems with the euro, due to lower oil prices, rising dollar and the relative weakness of our export potential. In parallel with the devaluation was a range of measures to protect the (customs and other types of) internal market, and it is already affecting the plans of our companies. Requiring retail networks to limit the rise in the consumer basket opens the way for many domestic manufacturers - so far the network chose to foreigners. Finally, the most important factor - the change in the size and structure of the disposable income. The fact that the crisis appeared to be a frontal way of social protection of citizens, after the crisis, when found the balance point, it becomes a source of strategic growth. The fact is that real disposable income - the only option that is not settling, but slightly increased in the crisis. And naturally, it should be the main driver of growth. And for the domestic market is important not only that increased income of poor people, but what middle-class incomes have fallen, and as a result formed a very powerful sector consumption of low-cost high-quality domestic product. In fact, we repeat on a larger scale the same jump, which occurred after the 1998 crisis. If, before the crisis civilized qualitative market cover 5-7%of the population, then after it experienced rapid expansion of the zone of capitalism "to 20-25%of the population. We have developed the preconditions for that in the next five to seven years "zone of capitalism" covered 40-60%of the population, and then we will not develop, and mature market economies.
The fact that the trend towards expansion of an already established and already forms the company strategy, no doubt. The most striking feature of this trend - the rapid spread of low-cost retail. Not only is the growth leader "magnet", but other networks, and not only food, increase the number of stores. At the same time expanding production and domestic producers. And all those who have invested in new capacity last year, talking about the beautiful demand.
But what really fascinates in the economy, so that as one driver creates the other. What does it mean to ensure the consumption of 20-30%of new customers are not rich? This requires a radical increase in productivity, efficiency, transportation, education and quality of the workforce. Hence there is a strong demand for new equipment, transport infrastructure, new education and health. The first two demands - the source of the rapid growth of investment, which in turn is the key to continued economic growth. The high demand for new efficient equipment already in place: at the last just in Moscow exhibition for metalworking seen unprecedented influx of visitors.
An additional factor reinforcing spiral of growth, in our case are the size of the territory and territorial differentiation both in the quality of life, and on environmental conditions. Today, objectively zone economic growth is shifting to the southern part of Russia. And Europe is attractive to the South only by the capacity of agriculture and food industry, but also, for example, possibilities for development of high-tech industries related to solar energy. Thus, in the Rostov region started the project for the production of elements for solar energy, power and efficiency which should enable significantly reduce the cost of this type of energy and open up for us not only his, but the European market. Investments in the project - 1.5 billion euros.
It is obvious that the movement's growth centers on the South of Russia will require large investments in transport and logistics infrastructure (partly already happening). But obviously the fact that the regions - "Pioneer of capitalism", such as the Urals, and Moscow with Peter, do not want to just take the position. It is possible that they will be the development of new areas of engineering, but in any case, regional competition in itself will be a growth driver.
Reversible if unstarted? Are there any factors that may cause us to stay? I think not. It is often questionable. And suddenly the Government will do something wrong? What if Europe can not cope with Greece? I think that this kind of doubt is the result of our perception of the economic system as a kind of artificial, man-made education, has a low inertia. In fact, the history of our twenty-year transformation, and the very history of capitalism, with its cycles show that the economic system - is probably the main elements of the powerful historical systems that are no less complex than natural ecosystems, and thus have the inertia in the development. We are forced to think about the economic system as an artificial and fragile and that the main agent here is a man, but apparently, this does not diminish, but on the contrary, radically increases the number of connections in the system and therefore makes it more inertia. Such logic leads me to believe that as long as the economic system of Russia will not get the expected nation-level economic power, economic growth, we may be interrupted by crises, but can not stop.
The problem of the current economic environment and what factors hinder today, and which promises us a second wave of expansion, we have discussed with the Director of the Institute of Information Development of the Higher School of Economics
Vladimir Bessonov.
- Let's start with the very general question, which is now being actively discussed: that we have in the economy is - stagnant or still growing?
- If you take a whole recovery after the crisis, considering the crisis period in autumn-winter 2008, but today is a recovery from recession, and it is evident from the V-shaped scenario. No one can deny that the lowest point of recession - this is the beginning of 2009. Well, one can argue, just began to rise, or a few months, but since the early summer of 2009, he was in intensive mode until about November. Then there is an obvious slowdown.
- seems to slow down safely overcome the spring of this year?
- Exactly. If a month ago it was possible to argue that we have stabilized or small podemchik, that the April data are in favor of continued expansion. This increase is slower than in the second half of last year, that is, we are seeing a clear slowdown in economic recovery, but we grow. The general impression is that the economy has recovered from the shock of the fall-winter 2008, and we moved into a phase of a smooth recovery. And then you can compare the two crises: the present and the one that was in 1998. The current in this comparison is lost. The decline in percentage terms, we had a deeper, and slower recovery of Regenerative just happened before then. So then we went to the restoration of "flight", and now - with the "undershoot".
- There is a hypothesis, why did this happen?
- I think the main reason that the last crisis was near the lowest point of the transformational recession, which started somewhere in the late 1980's. That is, the process of restructuring the Soviet economy in Russia, which began in the late 1980's and by the end of 1990 culminated in a natural way. In 1997, the economy started to grow a little, but suffered the Asian crisis, and we fell. But fell somewhere already near the bottom of the transformational recession. This meant that we had plenty of unused capacity, the mass of unemployed labor force. The market was swamped with consumer imports. And when, after the 1998 crisis has begun to recover, then superimposed the two processes: the rise of the recovery after the normal market crisis and recovery recovery after a long transformational recession. And the coincidence of these two processes has a very powerful dynamic.
Now the opposite. External stimulus, which led us to fall, preceded by a decade of rapid economic growth. We went into a crisis in terms of overheating. All resources were used. So expect the same intense way, as then, it would be unwise. The question is, what now long-term trend, what are the prospects - it is a question much more complicated than in 1998.
- So you're more inclined to think that we will enter into stagnation?
- No, I'm not for stagnation. Just a superposition of two different processes. In the short term - a rise of the recovery. A long-term trend - uncertain. Because it is clear that much of the reason for the extremely high rates of growth in the previous period in the fact that before this was a profound decline. But the transformation of the economy can not go to infinity. We can go back to comparable levels of GDP and living standards, but if we go on a trajectory that will surpass them in two or three times, then it will be another long-term process. Another relative to the previous dynamics, caused by the fundamental transformation of our economy. Must include new factors of long-term growth.
- Looking at the level of individual sectors and industries, where what happens?
- If we look at three components of industrial production, as it gives the statistics (see fig. - "Expert") - the dynamics of mining, manufacturing industries and production and distribution of electricity, gas and water - we can see that the main contribution is manufacturing. This is where the main decline was concentrated and that is where we saw the first intensive phase of recovery.
- The graph shows that the tail number, which characterizes the dynamics of the manufacturing industry, a new growth, and quite intense.
- Exactly. I think, is the second wave of regenerative recovery, but its intensity is now nothing to say. And there is a natural question: what is now tempered by the economy? If viewed from a purely statistical, by-products of Representatives, the first constraint was a few months production of natural gas, which is not restored. And it is extremely significant that this restraint was a result of purely market-based components. In the gas industry for a long time had problems with inefficient pricing. The formula of gas price was too rigidly tied to the price of oil six-, nine months ago. This is a rare case where it was possible to accurately predict the price of goods. And it is clear that consumers are playing on the exhaustion of reserves of underground gas storage facilities. The second factor limiting gas industry - other vendors in the European market, they better have reacted to this situation and just partially dislodge us from the European market. So here it is interesting that even in such a large public sector and the factors affecting the overcoming of the crisis, are purely market. This is now fixed and production of gas recovered.
Another deterrent component was the production of cars, and especially cars. However, this problem seems to be overcome - measures that introduced in March, proved to be effective, and volume production of cars is increasing rapidly.
- I think there is already working recovery of demand, not even associated with the replacement of old cars, plus the big investments Western automakers in Russia ...
- Anyway, now we can clearly see the trend growth in production cars. Finally, the last circumstance - the deceleration of the investment process and, accordingly, all industries that relate to investment complex. For example, production of building materials.
- As far as I know, now in production of construction materials is already very rapid growth.
- Perhaps because the investment is definitely underway. And it involves not only building materials, and machinery investment.
These three things are different in importance, different in phase, constrained growth: first gas, then cars, then the investment complex. This is from a statistical point of view. If you look from an economic point of view, which hinders recovery? Well, probably, it is obvious that this is the problem of the global economy. The slow recovery of other economies will have a deterrent effect on us.
- Is there a factor? After all, if you look at the schedule, then our exports almost recovered.
- Yes, growth was very fast, and it is a dollar increase. If we are talking about exports, the imports also grew, but much slower. And the trade surplus has now reached pre-crisis level. If we recall that this corresponds to the balance absolutely insane level of oil prices ...
- ... it turns out that external factor, the external market, we are not holding back at all.
- Maybe so. By the way, few paid attention to the fact that the crisis had been taken many measures to protect the domestic market. We have used the fact that it is not in the WTO, and raised import duties on a range of goods.
- Yes, and many companies are already beginning to feel it.
- Another limiting factor may be the budget this year. He's laid out on the basis of the realities of the crisis, in 2009. And the feeling that the budget of 2011, which is now being discussed, be managed on the basis of worst case scenarios. What might be having a deterrent effect on growth.
- The paradox is that it is "possible". It seems obvious that the less money in fiscal spending, the less growth. However, unexpectedly began to play another factor - a low budget deficit, the reliability of the state of balance, good expectations for the currency attractive economy for investment ... And finally, less government spending, the greater the clearing for the private economy. So it is unclear how a limited budget restrains the economy.
- Well, in my opinion, this is a deterrent.
The third point - expectations. Many people still do not understand what is happening in the economy, or stagnation, or growth, and this, of course, limits our investment projects - both private consumption and corporate.
Well, I see a fourth factor that has ceased to have effect factors, precipitated the rise. The real exchange rate of the ruble is practically returned to earlier levels. By the end of 2008, in a crisis, there have been significant structural changes in the price system, in particular the reduction of the cost of resources, energy. That is a correct structural shift occurred. But since then, producer prices were to increase again, and this factor is, of course, practically ceased to operate.
- But, looking at schedules, we see that the exchange rate, and producer prices have not yet reached pre-crisis levels, so that the supply of relative (with respect to the situation of 2007-2008), the efficiency in the manufacturing industry is, and as they themselves reduced costs, the supply of this pretty decent.
- Well, I see four such constraints. But there is something that will pull up with the possibilities of the second wave of growth. The latest trend - the growth in the investment complex, which has begun. Investment started to grow long enough, and now it should affect the manufacturing sector.
Growth factor, of course, acts of domestic demand. If we look at the dynamics of real income, it generally looks like a discordant note: the decline everywhere, but here it is not. Now income is even slightly higher than in 2008, and of course, is a source of growth.
Another factor - the reduction of inflation. CB gave a lot of serial signals by reducing the refinancing rate, which means that when we get used to the fact that inflation declined, we begin to take long-term investment decisions. In general, the factor of low inflation, perhaps, the most recent for us. We must learn to live in conditions of low inflation. At first, it leads, for example, to an increase in real interest rates. What is particularly noticeable now that inflation has fallen rapidly, and we all got used to measure year to year, not even notice that real rates have not decreased and increased.
- Yes, now they are somewhere on the level of seven or eight percent, and in the period from 2003 to 2008 never exceeded four. And by the way, businesses are already felt and said that they could borrow no more than a seven per cent, and this is just a European standard - one or two of real interest on loans. However, it is strange that even at such rates of investment process has begun. However, most likely, he began by concessional loans and by foreigners, and then bet more.
- But it does mean that when real interest rates will decline and they will inevitably decline as the money is complete, we can expect continued growth of investment. And plus to this place revival of consumer credit.
But we must think about the long-term trends. If we understand that the transformational cycle in our economy is completed, then the long-term growth will occur as a result of some entirely new trend. This is another story, and discuss it with other necessary items. Here the decisive role played by totally different factors such as demography, education, science, culture, quality infrastructure, environment.
- So you think that this new wave - a wave of a completely different system growth?
- Yes. And the vigorous activity of the Russian leadership around innovation - is an attempt to cause a systemic growth.
- Can you tell why the second wave of recession will not be?
- I can not. I think that there are factors that we do not control. Well now, it was the story of Greece. With her kind of right, but whether there is determinism in the decisions that are taken? Could it be that they are there to make a blunder and the development would go on a bad scenario? In the end, blamed the European leaders that they delayed the resolution of this issue. Where is the guarantee that in the foreseeable future they will not have any serious trouble?
- Guarantee that has accumulated vast experience in managing financial crises and operate huge institutions, these managers. It's like a disease. Previously, people often die from pneumonia, but not anymore. Therefore, our fears are exaggerated, although it is clear that life without money and without the usual well-being we fear even more than the disease.
- It would be nice. More - all man-made disasters. We happened Raspadskaya, Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP. The Americans had a Gulf of Mexico. It may also be influenced.
- probably a plus: investment, structural changes ...
- Agreed. That corvette Cheonan "sank. If there is some zavarushku in Korea, as it will affect us? Finally, there is Iran that something will happen, and so on. There are some factors that may be some events that we do not know. But overall, I think, will rise. Conditions that can not give guarantees.
http://www.expert.ru/printissues/exp...volna_podyoma/
14.06.2010, 18:39
The second wave of recovery
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